Beal- Mitchell Theory/ The Aouar Problem.

If I was to throw you in the deep end and have you star in your first movie today and the only control I give you is you get to pick the director what are the chances you pick someone like Michael Bay over Martin Scorsese?

0%? negative 5%?

It’s well known what surrounds you can either help elevate or drag you down as a person, so it’s with this frame I ask Is Donovan Mitchell better than Bradley Beal? 

In my opinion no. Beal is an elite shooter currently averaging 30 points per game on a bad team while Donovan Mitchell is an above average shooter averaging 25 on a good team. The Jazz allow Mitchell to be the high volume shooter he is by surrounding him with shooters and a defensive system that opens lanes for him and keeps them in games respectively,  Beal however is leading a cast of “wait how long has he been on the team?” The seperation is clear.

Beal Theory centers on a hypothesis that statistical mirrors are similar but not the same and when switched these minor differences become glaring. Mitchell and Beal despite different styles have the exact same roles in their system; Primary scorers and 2nd playmaking options, in a sense they take 2 different routes to get to the same place. If we switched their teams there is 99% chance the Jazz get better and a 99% chance the Wizards get worse, Beal becomes more efficient and his volume goes down while Mitchell’s volume goes up but his already shaky efficiency splits come down from above average to just straight up below average or bad,  he’ll be like the million dollar version of Colin Sexton.

Now That We’ve Established Beal Theory Let’s Apply It; The Aouar Problem.

I’ve dug deep into the Aouar numbers looking for the seperation – Key Passes, Passes into the 1/3rd of the pitch, press rate, dribble rate, progressive passes and defensive actions per game.

The seperation has refused to present itself and that’s because it doesn’t exist. His not a separation level talent and that’s concerning cause his talked about and priced as one. I’ve looked down the statistical crystal ball for a mirror, praying for the numbers to send me a sign of wisdom or a path way to properly evaluate the data and it’s finally clicked.

He is Nuri Sahin.

Sahin was another hyped up talent who left Dortmund and never ever lived up to the billing cause like Aouar he was never a seperation level talent and when asked to be, it stood out he wasn’t that guy. So what happened? Sahin had everything right at Dortmund; the board, the coach, the team, his midfield partners and the fans just like Aouar has now, the midfield talent Lyon has piled up is honestly ridiculous and with a set role to fill Aouar can out perform it beyond its means every game, the moment he leaves for a team who require the same output without the same conditions he’ll fail to meet them and sadly be blamed for it.

Aouar is really good at everything and while he doesn’t separate where he places on the chart show if he can get on a team that doesn’t need him to be more than he is and can recreate his conditions at Lyon(a proper 6 is a must and another more creative 8, an outright 10 or a coach with a creative system) he’ll be a really good player and as he ages maybe even great.

Let me tell which team that isn’t though Arsenal. He’ll die over here, we don’t have a 6 and our creator is a part time fortnight connoisseur we are literally the Wizards to his Jazz, his numbers will come up but hie efficiency will nose dive and when you do less often what you’re good at you’re a lesser player now clear and simple.

Aouar should go somewhere like Madrid who have a proper 6 and 2 supremely gifted 8s to pair next to him and mould him or maybe Bayern with a system so refined he can just get in there and mix immediately or Liverpool if the ever get a 10. Apart from that every other club doesn’t suit him. If I was agent I would he pleading under a statue of the virgin Mary that this kid is smart enough to see that Lyon may have Europe’s best midfield in Europe in a year or two(Cherki hasn’t even joined in yet Good Lord!!!) And wait for the best opportunity to present itself, In 2 years Madrid might see him as the ultimate Pogba alternative or in 2 years Barcelona might have their shit together and bring him in as the long term De Jong pair. If he rushes in now he’ll end up like De Ligt a 20 year old kid experiencing Beal Theory in all it’s forces.

Not everyone’s Pogba that’s fine, if you’re don’t have that all world 8 It’s best you surround the player with a midfield that you know allows him to be a straight up 8 and not a deep lying fantasista or advanced field regista or whatever term is popular right now with the football hipsters, just bring him to be an 8 and you’ll be fine. If you can’t do that and want to play him as some fancy midfielder you better have a coach who knows what his doing.

Verdict-

Stay or Pep  nothing else.

Published by MabSidam

A data driven piece here, an emotionally charged profile there. Advanced Football Data,Diagrams and Analysis made easy. Innovate my own Advanced Analytics.

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